There is life with HIV

Risk of getting HIV! What Are Your Risks In These Scenarios?

Chances of getting HIV? Am I likely to get HIV like this?

I couldn't say. But, there are factors!

In spite of everything, caution is always needed! After all, in the scenario we are analyzing, there are at least two people, with one of them a little more excited than the other at the hour H.

And… yes, you are at risk! Nothing wrong with that (!!!), after all, I, Claudio Souza, it was like that and I'm here, working on a blog about HIV and AIDS, right?

Nothing more idiotic to follow as reasoning of sexual relations! The fact is, I just thought about it and it blew my mind afterwards.

AND…. Then and then ... I ended up getting HIV this way ...

…Contractthe odds ...

… Which was how I believed it could be!

Playing the HIV numbers game is less - and more - risky than you think. For the latest related updates.

Can you get HIV through oral sex? This is probably one of the most common questions asked by AIDS doctors and service providers.

Americans really want to know the risk of HIV during fellatio - even more than during anal sex. Sure, you can search Google, but the results can confuse and scare you even more.

The CDC Brochure and your risks of contracting HIV

A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) leaflet describes the likelihood of oral sex transmission as "low".

But what does it mean? The website puts it this way:

"You can contract HIV by having oral sex with your partner.

I have a story to tell. And I will tell. But not today (01/08/2020)

Although the risk is not as great as with unprotected anal or vaginal sex ”.

With regard to going down on a woman, the website explains: "HIV has been found in vaginal secretions, so there is a risk of contracting HIV from this activity".

Does that put your mind at ease? Difficultly. That is why many of us look for percentages and proportions when it comes to risk. 

And numbers seem less abstract, more specific. But they give us a better understanding of HIV risk and sexual health?

Let's think a little

And let's do the math:

The probabilities of HIV transmission through exposure to the virus are usually expressed in percentages or in probabilities. 

For example, the average risk of contracting HIV through sharing a needle once with an HIV positive drug user is 0,67% (not like that, illustrious, illustrious and illustrious readers, you must use drugs!), which can also be declared as 1 on 149 or, using the proportions preferred by the CDC, 67 out of 10.000 exhibitions

The risk of contracting HIV by a ***** and in an HIV positive man who is not undergoing treatment it is a maximum of 1 in 2.500 (or 0,04% per act). 

But then, with the thing done, comes the fear! Immunological window is the portal of suffering for countless

The risk of contracting HIV during vaginal penetration for a woman in the United States is 1 per 1.250 exposures (or 0,08%); for men in this scenario, it is 1 per 2.500 exposures (0,04%, the same as performing fellatio).

As for anal sex, the most risky sexual act in terms of HIV transmission, if the active and HIV-negative partner - the insertion partner - and an HIV-positive fund have unprotected sex, the top chances of contracting the virus from of a single encounter is 1 in 909 (or 0,11 percent) if he is circumcised and 1 in 161 (or 0,62 percent) if he is not circumcised. 

Bullet with Paper and Percentage Representativeness

And if a seronegative person gets involved with a person who has risky behavior as a living metric, or who does not like to suck candy with paper (here I am, the idiot in action), and ejaculates inside, the chances of HIV transmission are, on average, less than 2%. 

Specifically, it is 1,43 percent, or 1 in 70. If the subject leaves before ejaculation (withdrawal), the chances are 1 in 154.

And what could and could this represent? 

Thank God, HIV is really not very inefficient in transmitting due to its modus modus, especially in light of the alarming statistics with which we are bombarded

Although planet Earth has over thirty million people living with HIV, and none of them is a budgetary problem, except for the narrow and dire vision of both… if the rate of new infections remains stable, there was a 12% increase between 2008 and 2010 among men who have sex with men (MSM) - including a jump of 22% among young MSM between 13 and 24 years old.

A report by the Black AIDS Institute states that African American men who prefer to make love to people of the same sex have about twenty-five percent 25% chances, one in four chances, of contracting HIV at that specific time of their time between 25 and a 60% chance at 40, just over one in two relationships


Yes, however, other researchers predicted that half of all gay men in the United States, aged 22 today, be HIV positive to 50 years.

Unaware of Safe Sex

So, how do we move from the 1 in 70 odds that HIV will be transmitted during the most risky sex act to the 1 in 2 chances that young gay men in the United States will contract HIV before age 50? 

And before you think: no, the answer is not that everyone with HIV is a tremendous / tremendous vagabond / ordinary and ordinary who has never heard of safe sex. IS NOT IT!

WE gave us mirrors! [Penci_blockquote style = ”style-3 ″ align =” right ”author =” Renato Russo ”font_style =” italic ”uppercase =” true ”text_size =” 35 ″] And they gave us mirrors! [/ Penci_blockquote]

To begin, you need to understand that these probabilities of HIV transmission from single exposure are average! These are general figures that do not reflect the many factors that can increase OR decrease risk.

One of these factors is acute infection, the period of six to 12 weeks after the virus has contracted. At that point, the viral load skyrockets, increasing a person's infectivity by up to 26 times. So, right there, the risk per action of receptive vaginal transmission jumps from 1 in 1.250 exposures to 1 in 50 exposures, and the risk of receptive anal sex goes from 1 in 70 to more than 1 in 3. 

Acute Infection, HIV Tests and Infectiousness

It is also important to realize that, during acute infection, the immune system has not yet created antibodies that decrease viral load, at least for a few years. HIV tests that depend on antibodies can provide a false negative reading during an acute infection, also known as a “window period”.

The presence of another sexually transmitted infection (STD) - even without symptoms, as gonorrhea in the throat or rectum - can increase the risk of HIV up to 8 times, in part because STDs increase inflammation, therefore, the number of white blood cells that with tropism to HIV. 

Vaginal conditions like bacterial vaginosis, dryness and menstruation also alter the risk.

There is not much certainty in these numbers. But they can be a good tool for understanding the risks. Other factors reduce the risk. Circumcision does this on average 60% for heterosexual men (I was circumcised, however, here I am!). 

Treatment How Prevention?

HIV positive people who have a undetectable viral load thanks to drugs can reduce the 96% transmission risk (I would not bet the health of someone who went to bed, the wall, or a dressing room at Le Masque, in this way), a concept known as “treatment as prevention”.

The first results of the study PARTNERS in progress (completed in 2017) found zero transmissions between heterosexual and sexually active serodiscordant heterosexual couples, as well as gay men who were also serodiscordant undergoing successful treatment, even if STDs were present - Laboratories thank partners! Seronegative people can take a daily pill of Truvada (…) as pre-exposure prophylaxis, or PrEP, to reduce your risk by 92%; likewise, there is post-exposure prophylaxis or PEP. 

Insult - For decades it was the only possibility

The CDC says that condoms reduce the risk about 80%. (this is an insult to my intelligence)  These numbers will certainly vary based on the correct and consistent use of the prevention strategy.

Researchers also see risk through the construction of family, relationships, community and socioeconomic status. 

A quick example: 

According to CDC data, 84% of HIV positive women contract the virus through heterosexual contact. As researchers like Judith Auerbach, PhD, associate professor at the University of California at San Francisco, the phrase “heterosexual contact” masks the prevalence of anal sex among heterosexual couples and the role of sexual violence - which can be significant because exposure to gender inequality and intimate partner violence triples a woman's risk of STDs and increases her chance of contracting HIV 1,5 times.

Sex, Sexuality and Life or Statistics?

For every three relationships, one is at total risk - Statistically speaking! Then there is the concept of cumulative risk. The numbers often cited for the risk of HIV transmission considered an instance of exposure. But this is not a static number. The risk accumulates through repeated exposures, although you cannot simply add the probabilities of each exposure to score your total risk. 

Statisticians, if you're curious, have a formula for cumulative risk: 1 - ((1 - x) ^ y) where x is the exposure risk (as a decimal) and y is the number of exposures.

But, let's face it, many of us cannot tabulate the tip in a restaurant, so it is unlikely that we will elaborate advanced algebra during that hour, the so-called "Hour H"

However, not even the greatest mathematicians in the world would be wise to assess HIV risk based on statistics - It would be making life or death bets using data where the tie is on the other side. Doing so is a serious gamble, with implications close to madness. 

Numbers and probabilities can be miscalculated and misinterpreted and our lives, or the quality of them, cannot be "protected in this context!"

Applied Mathematics, sex, sexuality and risk management

Case in point: 

Having a 1 in 70 chance of transmitting HIV does not mean that 70 exposures to the virus are required to seroconverter.  It simply means that out of 70 exhibitions, average, mathematically thinking, one of them would lead to HIV infection.

You see, if you use these numbers, place your bet and put the ball in the roulette wheel, it is always a roulette wheel, you can be unlucky (the lack of coughing or improvidence, as well as certain evils, you could, can and maybe contract now in the first exhibition.

Or Monday! 😉

Another important concept to understand is the absolute risk (what is really the risk) versus relative risk (the percentage change in risk). 

Relative Risks or Relativized Risks

Quais aas minhas chances de pegar HIV
This question should be asked before deciding not to use condoms! Gordon Johnson by Pixabay

Phrases like “PrEP can reduce your risk by 92%” tell us about relative risks, but most people want to know absolute risksIn this example, a 92% risk reduction does not mean that the final absolute risk is 8%.

Instead, it is a 92% reduction in the initial risk. If the initial absolute risk is 50%, PrEP reduces the risk to 4%; if the initial risk is 20%, PrEP will reduce it to 1,6%. 

Are you still in front of the roulette, with the ball in your hand? I was! AND…

Armed with data like this, it is tempting to try to calculate HIV risk for specific scenarios and plan accordingly. 

For example, what are the chances of getting HIV from someone with an acute infection if you are on PrEP? 

Such exercises can be problematic, warns James Wilton, of the CATIE (in French). THE Canadian AIDS Information Exchange, in English, specialist in the biology of HIV transmission and its implications for HIV risk communication.  In real life, due to all the variables involved - ranging from a person's viral load to HIV prevalence in the community - it is very difficult to identify the initial risks, therefore, also the final risks for each individual. 

"The numbers you present are not definitive," he notes. 

como você pega e passa HIV tem como grande interruptor da cadeia de transmissão a camisinha
The condom prevents the domino effect

In addition, research gaps often exist, he says, meaning that in many cases, scientists may still not have real-world examples to back up these numbers and calculations, but they do have mathematical modeling and biological logic to explain why certain ideas about HIV the risk is true. 

For example, we don't have direct research showing that the risk of HIV transmission in PrEP is greater if a partner has an acute HIV infectionIn addition, many HIV studies are conducted among serodiscordant heterosexual couples in Africa, and scientists are not 100% sure that the results apply to everyone.

"We know that there is not much certainty in these numbers," says Wilton. 


But he emphasizes that "they can be a good tool to help people understand the risks - they just need to be packed with a lot of information". 

For a more detailed discussion, see Wilton's webinars at

And for an excellent primer on how to understand health statistics, get a copy of Know Your Chances: 

During sex (at this time the word is laid with music by Gonzaguinha -Explode ... ”, our perception of risk is replaced by love, lust, trust and intimacy.

Risk Management In Case of AIDS ?!

When you have no information or misunderstand the facts, you cannot understand your true HIV risk. If you underestimate the prevalence of HIV in your community, you will underestimate your risk.

Research has found that more than one in five gay men in urban cities are HIV positive, and the virus is more prevalent among colored MSM and certain communities.

People in these communities are more likely to come into contact with the virus, even if they have fewer partners and practice safer sex more often. In other words, everyone's HIV risk is not the same. Perhaps the biggest miscalculation is the incorrect assessment that you or your partner is HIV negative; that thing:

Ahhhhh she doesn't "have it", beautiful like that?

Toim ...

That is why risk reduction strategies, such as serosorting (untranslatable word that can be interpreted as sexual Russian roulette ... 

With arm in arm

Or this: having sex without condoms only with people who are supposed to and wish to be living the same serological status, which have disastrous, deplorable and tragically greater margins of error! Perry Halkitis, PhD, a researcher at New York University who followed cohorts of young MSM and HIV-positive elderly people, noted that people assume how: 

“He is older and from the city, so it is very likely that he is positive and I am not.

And that beautiful girl, with dark eyes, body turned by Venus, a mermaid….! This girl "so, so beautiful, there is no" ...

And there I go "sleep with her". Of course, sleeping with her, that night, will be all that will not be done !!!

“People make sexual decisions based on their emotional assessments, with their lust, their desire, the volume of hormones in the bloodstream and, to quote Paulo Calabrês, from Neurovox, passion is a temporary state of madness or partial dementia.

Guys, how do I know that! The crazy person would lose to me!

Do you know the Tarot?


The person, and she needs to be much more focused on the act“, Says Halkitis, who also believes that basic HIV education should go into the nuances of transmission.

He wonders then who would be, right now, teaching young people not to use petroleum jelly with condoms, for example, or not to have a duct before sex (if necessary, do this a few hours before) or, if you are using drugs, do not share water and feces, which can also spread the virus.

 All the numbers in the world are not going to change the fact that people are terrible when assessing their risk of HIV infection. 

Often, for good reason. If you’re struggling to find a job, a meal or a place to live, HIV is not at the top of your list of concerns, even if exposure to more risks in your daily life increases the risk of the virus. 

Stupid passion

If you are falling in love or dating, you do not see your partner as a threat to your life, especially with regard to HIV, despite the fact that today two thirds of HIV infections that happen everywhere are occurring among couples , and it doesn't matter the nature of these couples, all over the planet! And it is very evident to me that this happened everywhere!

Amarílis was such a case ”

Jaqueline, make it hum, hum also contracted like that! 

I persist; Dr Vera Paiva, from NEPAIDS, stated that marriage is a risky situation for women! And I agree on gender, number and grade! Going further, citing it again: It is not possible to prevent HIV / AIDS.

Even in connections, from person to person, you are probably not getting tabulated, relationship after relationship, your personal risk of contracting HIV!

Freezing the Blood!

 A survey asked young MSM who had sex online to list their main concerns. 

The answers? 

That if the person they met did not resemble what appears in their profiles, or that they represented a risk of being beaten or stolen, they would be rejected and HIV serology was not, and would not be, the main concern.

At Rala and Rola.

This is not because young people were unaware of the virus, says Alex Carballo-Diéguez, PhD, one of the authors of that study, with numerous additional research on MSM and HIV. 

Risk Perception

"In the interview room, sitting across from me, most gay men increase their perception of risk and can accurately recite all the circumstances that can result in HIV transmission," says Carballo-Diéguez. 

“But, at the moment of sexual encounter, when men seek the most satisfying experience possible, the perception of risk recedes and is replaced by love, confidence, intimacy, lust, eccentricity and many other condiments that improve the taste of sex. 

This quote comes in handy: [penci_blockquote style = ”style-2 ″ align =” right ”author =” Blaise Pascal ”font_style =” italic ”uppercase =” true ”text_size =” 35 ″] Le Coeur is your raisons that la raison ne connait point ”[/ penci_blockquote]


“Our sexual experiences are not about 'Danger! Danger! Will Robinson! '”Says Jim Pickett, director of prevention and health advocacy for gay men at the AIDS Foundation of Chicago. 

When it was just under 1:45 at Le Masque I had already prepared the tape recorders, had put it on the spot, also triggered a K₇ tape, for eventual emergencies and, as soon as Pity passed towards her dressing room I thought:

"Here we go". What excited us? Well, the layout of each of us weighed a lot! She was a beautiful woman, who knew exactly how to wait for me and as soon as we met there, in the dressing room!

Nobody makes love with a calculator in hand, or with a meter next to the bed!

Nossa! Yes it is…

… Sex is about pleasure, intimacy and things that make us feel good. And in the real world, risk-takers are celebrated. We have to take risks every day. ” 

A better approach, he says, is not to ask:

 "What is my HIV risk?" but instead, think: 

Can I catch HIV on here?


Banalizing AIDS is a Serious Problem

Len Tooley, a colleague of Wilton's at CATIE who also tests for HIV, agrees. 

Sexual health is often framed with the idea of ​​risk rather than rewards.

This can present HIV and those living with it as the worst possible outcome imaginable, he notes, which is not only stigmatizing, but often irrational and false, as many people with HIV are, in fact, very well.

Yes! It is true. Very well, taking 5 to 25 pills a day! 

Cool, right? There was a pathos. One who ended up buried in his sea of ​​conveniences that said that living with HIV is good. Yes! But he was unresponsive and, as far as I saw, he didn't want to contract HIV. No, not Ledus Enganus!

Banalization itself: Read here!

And the Blue or Pink lenses

"When we get involved in risk concepts, it's easy to go down the rabbit hole," says Tooley. 

"When people ask for numbers, they usually try to find a balance between what they want to do sexually and the chances that these activities will lead to HIV transmission." 

A simple inflamed follicle, or thirty thousand of them are not coherent signs of AIDS

And keep in mind: The COVID-19 it is devastating and with dizzying consequences!

The discussions that follow, he says, raise questions about morals and values ​​around HIV transmission, about how much risk we believe is worth taking, how we perceive HIV as a possible result of our actions and when it is good to discard condoms

I suggest, even because I had to learn, to practice safe sex!

And keep in mind that it is possible to have a baby. Being a mother or father despite HIV. There are precautions to be taken, of course! But it is possible! In other words, questions that cannot be answered with a number!

That simple! As it is also necessary to explain that “Reactive lymph nodes” is not a clear symptom of having AIDS. And, to clarify well, reaction lymph nodes have a much simpler name:


That simple! Beautiful words don't make you an authority on pi ** s!…

Translated by Cláudio Souza, on July 24, 2020 from the original in, Against All Odds: What Are Your Chances of Getting HIV in These Scenarios? Published originally in March 26th, 2014 <br>• By Trenton Straube


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